铝类市场周报：需求淡季预期向好，铝类或将震荡运行-20251226

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The aluminum market may oscillate. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply may increase slightly while demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to remain high and volatile due to positive macro expectations. For alumina, it is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position. For cast aluminum, it is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [4][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Electrolytic Aluminum: The raw material alumina price is low, and smelting profits are good. Supply increases slightly, demand weakens in the off - season, and inventory accumulates slightly. The price remains high and volatile [4]. - Alumina: The impact of seasonal factors on imported ores is weakening, and port inventory is rising slightly. Supply may decrease under policy guidance, and demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position [5]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: High aluminum prices support the cost of cast aluminum. Production may decrease due to environmental policies and raw material supply issues. Demand weakens in the off - season, and it is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Movement: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum (SHFE) was 22,335 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from December 19; LME aluminum was 2,956.5 US dollars/ton on December 24, up 1.76% from December 18. Alumina futures price rose 3.17%, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract rose 0.73%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot rose 1.01%, and the spot price of alumina in some regions declined [10][14][32]. - Ratio and Spread: The SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.53 on December 26, down 0.32 from December 19. The copper - aluminum futures spread increased by 5,320 yuan/ton, and the aluminum - zinc futures spread decreased by 115 yuan/ton [11][23]. - Position and Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the SHFE aluminum position increased by 2.96%, and the net position of the top 20 increased [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Inventory: As of December 24, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.28%; as of December 19, SHFE inventory increased by 0.43%; as of December 25, domestic social inventory increased by 10.98% [35]. - Raw Material Import: In November 2025, the import of bauxite increased by 9.76% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 2,619 million tons, up 3 million tons month - on - month [39]. - Waste Aluminum: The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong rose by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. In November 2025, the import of aluminum waste increased by 17.7% year - on - year, and the export decreased by 1.7% [45]. - Alumina: In November 2025, alumina production increased by 7.6% year - on - year. The import increased by 22.74% month - on - month and 134.12% year - on - year, and the export decreased [48]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In November 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.5% year - on - year. The import decreased by 2.79% year - on - year in November, and the global supply gap from January to October was - 108,700 tons [51][55]. - Aluminum Products: In November 2025, the production of aluminum products decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and both imports and exports decreased [59]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: In November 2025, the built - in capacity of cast aluminum alloy increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and production increased by 7.12% [62]. - Aluminum Alloy: In November 2025, aluminum alloy production increased by 17% year - on - year. Imports decreased, and exports increased [65]. - Real Estate: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, down 0.52 from the previous month. The new construction and completion areas decreased year - on - year [68]. - Infrastructure and Automobile: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13%. In November 2025, automobile sales increased by 3.4% and production increased by 2.76% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillatory movement of aluminum prices and the possible convergence of volatility, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].