瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20251226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market price increased. Imported rubber market offers rose, with traders mainly engaged in wheel - warehouse exchanges. The restocking sentiment in January was strong, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. Domestic natural rubber spot offers also increased following the market, but downstream demand did not improve significantly, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see approach and maintaining rigid demand procurement, resulting in weak actual order transactions [9]. - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the non - tapping period. In the Hainan producing area, some rubber forests in the western and southern regions are still tapping, but due to rainfall, the raw material output on the island has further decreased, and local private processing plants have gradually shut down. It is expected that the producing area will basically stop tapping in early January and completely stop in mid - January. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand month - on - month. The arrival and warehousing of overseas mixed rubber have increased, while downstream factories mainly consume their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and the overall outbound volume is lower than expected. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises has decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and the finished product inventory has increased. Under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have limited or stopped production [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market price increased this week. Imported rubber offers rose, and domestic spot offers also increased. Downstream demand remained weak [9]. - Market Outlook: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and Hainan's output is decreasing. Qingdao Port's inventory is accumulating, and downstream restocking willingness is low. Tire enterprises' operating rates are mixed, and they are in the seasonal off - season [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,400 - 16,000, and the nr2602 contract between 12,400 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.88% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price rose by 3.2% week - on - week. As of December 25, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipt was 93,230 tons, an increase of 6,070 tons from last week; the 20 - rubber warehouse receipt was 57,960 tons, a decrease of 1,008 tons from last week. As of December 26, the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread was 30, and the 20 - rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 25 [12][22][27]. - Spot Market: As of December 25, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week. The 20 - rubber basis was 433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 103 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from last week [29][36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream: As of December 26, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.2 (- 1.8) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 51 (+ 0.25) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was - 17.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton from last week. As of December 25, the fresh latex price in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and Yunnan was in the non - tapping period [39][42]. - Import Situation: In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [45]. - Inventory Situation: As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate [49]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Tire Operating Rate: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [52]. - Tire Exports: In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65% [55]. - Domestic Demand: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [58].