广发期货《黑色》日报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment ratings is provided in the reports [1][3][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Current steel production continues to decline and inventory is being reduced. Production cuts support steel prices, and with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices are recovering from the low level. However, due to weak demand, the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate in a range, with rebar fluctuating between 3000 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3150 - 3350. The rebar production has stopped falling, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The 1 - 5 positive spread can gradually exit the market. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the 5 - month rebar - iron ore ratio expansion [1] Iron Ore - In the short term, it is difficult for the iron ore supply - demand contradiction to form a trend - based decline. The price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to mainly operate within the short - term range of 760 - 810 for the 05 contract. Future attention should be paid to the BHP negotiation situation, molten iron trend, and steel mill restocking rhythm [3] Coke and Coking Coal - The supply and demand of coke have weakened. After three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on the long positions of the coke 2605 contract and switch to short - selling on rallies. For coking coal, the rebound expectation has been overdrawn in advance, and it is also recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to short - selling on rallies [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - For ferrosilicon, although the supply - demand contradiction needs to be alleviated, the production cut expectation has been priced in, and the improvement expectation on the demand side in the follow - up is insufficient. The price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term. For ferromanganese, the current supply - demand has been priced in, and there is no clear trend - based rebound signal. It is recommended to consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia and mainly conduct short - term operations [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3310, 3170, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3280, 3180, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2950 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The profits of East China and North China hot - rolled coils are - 3 and - 99 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing by 3 yuan/ton [1] Supply - The daily average molten iron output is 226.6 tons with no change. The output of five major steel products is 796.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or - 0.1%. Rebar output is 184.4 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons or 1.5% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1258.0 tons, a decrease of 36.8 tons or - 2.8%. Rebar inventory is 452.5 tons, a decrease of 18.3 tons or - 4.0% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.3 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons or - 13.9%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 835.3 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons or - 0.2% [1] Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. have increased slightly, with increases of 0.1% - 0.3%. The 05 - contract basis of various iron ore powders has also increased, with increases of 3.0% - 5.0% [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons or - 2.8%. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 128.0 tons or - 3.6% [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 226.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons or - 1.2%. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) is 313.5 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons or - 1.8% [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 15682.46 tons, an increase of 169.8 tons or 1.1%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8724.0 tons, a decrease of 110.3 tons or - 1.2% [3] Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remain unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1589 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or - 0.8%, and the 05 contract price is 1739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.4% [5] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or - 0.5%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 0.7% [5] Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 226.6 tons, with no change [5] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 912.6 tons, an increase of 12.2 tons or 1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 92.2 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 1.3% [5] Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remains unchanged, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or - 0.5%. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.7%, and the 05 contract price is 1132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan or - 0.74% [5] Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 853.4 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons or - 0.3%, and the clean coal output is 438.2 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or - 0.1% [5] Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 126.5 tons, an increase of 6.6 tons or 5.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1036.3 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons or 0.3% [5] Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract is 5692.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.0 yuan. The spot prices of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, etc. have different changes, with the Inner Mongolia price remaining unchanged and the Qinghai price increasing by 1.0% [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5772.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.7 yuan or - 0.1%. The production profit of Inner Mongolia is - 202.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.2% [6] Supply - The ferrosilicon production (weekly) is 100 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or - 1.3%. The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises (weekly) is 29.5%, a decrease of 0.8% or - 2.6% [6] Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) is 18 tons, with no change. The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output (weekly) is 226.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons or - 1.2% [6] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises (weekly) is 6.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or - 2.4% [6] Ferromanganese Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract is 5846.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan or 0.24%. The spot prices of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc. remain unchanged [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5492.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.0 yuan or - 0.9%. The production profit of Inner Mongolia has a certain change [6] Supply - The ferromanganese production (weekly) is 193 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons or 2.3% [6] Demand - The ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) is 113 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons or 0.24% [6] Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises (weekly) is 38.6 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.4% [6]