房地产行业：“十五五”中国房地产市场趋势展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry. Core Insights - The report outlines a significant shift in China's real estate policy from emphasizing "housing is for living, not for speculation" to focusing on stabilizing the market and preventing declines during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [7][22]. - The real estate market reached a peak in 2021, followed by a deep adjustment phase, with a notable decline in new housing sales and a shift in market dynamics towards improvement-driven demand [8][20]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" anticipates a gradual stabilization of supply and demand in the real estate market over the next five years, with an expected average annual sales area of new residential properties between 700 million to 800 million square meters [15][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Summary of the "14th Five-Year Plan" Real Estate Market Situation - Policy Environment: The transition from a focus on preventing overheating to stabilizing the market was marked by various supportive measures, especially in response to the COVID-19 pandemic [7][22]. - Market Characteristics: The total sales area of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" was approximately 5.8 billion square meters, a 25% decrease compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [8]. - Corporate Landscape: The number of large real estate companies has decreased, with only 11 companies remaining in the billion-yuan sales category by 2024, indicating increased market concentration among state-owned enterprises [9]. 2. Outlook for the "15th Five-Year Plan" Real Estate Market - Development Environment: Economic growth is anchored to achieving a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, with a focus on expanding domestic demand [10][11]. - Market Forecast: The report predicts that the total housing demand during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will be approximately 4.98 billion square meters, with a significant portion driven by urban population growth and improvement needs [15][16]. - Development Trends: The report highlights a normalization of urban differentiation, with a focus on high-quality housing in core cities, and emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and corporate transformation to adapt to new market conditions [17][18].