Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai nickel, it is expected to have a wide - range adjustment in the short - term. Pay attention to the MA5 support and the 130,000 - yuan resistance level [7]. - For stainless steel, it is predicted that the futures price will adjust at a high level. Focus on the MA5 support and the 13,200 - yuan resistance level [7]. Summary of Each Section 1. Week - to - Week Summary Shanghai Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose significantly, with a weekly increase of + 8.17% and an amplitude of 12.20%. The closing price was 126,750 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of the macro aspect, the US ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months. Fundamentally, the nickel ore imports are expected to decline as the Philippines enters the rainy season, and Indonesia plans to cut the RKAB quota significantly next year, causing concerns about raw material supply. In the smelting sector, Indonesia's nickel - iron output remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase; multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into production one after another. Although some production has been cut due to the shortage of intermediate raw materials and profit losses, the output is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large. In terms of demand, the price of nickel - iron, the cost of stainless steel, has decreased, and the steel mills' profit has improved, with a high expected production schedule; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, and the market mainly purchases on demand, with the spot premium rising; the LME inventory overseas also shows an increase. Technically, trading volume has increased, and the position is at a high level, with greater differences between long and short positions [7]. Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel rose significantly, with a weekly increase of + 1.85% and an amplitude of 3.14%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,955 yuan/ton [7]. - In the raw material aspect, as the Philippines gradually enters the rainy season and the nickel ore grade declines, the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening; Indonesia's plan to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year will put pressure on nickel - iron production due to the shrinking raw material supply. On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend, and the impact of the previous extrusion of exports is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and trading performance are average. However, the market arrivals are also limited, so the national stainless - steel social inventory maintains a seasonal slight decline. Technically, the position has decreased, and the price has adjusted, with a cautious long - position sentiment [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Price - As of December 26, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 905 yuan/nickel, up 15 yuan/nickel from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 126,750 yuan/ton, up 9,570 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,955 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan/ton from last week [13]. Basis - As of December 26, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 129,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,950 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 595 yuan/ton. This week, the basis of Shanghai nickel rose, and the basis of stainless steel fell [18]. Price Ratio - As of December 26, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.78, up 0.57 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67 yuan/ton, down 0.26 from last week [25]. Net Long Positions of the Top 20 - As of December 26, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 47,699 lots, a decrease of 18,647 lots compared to December 22, 2025. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 13,994 lots, a decrease of 8,415 lots compared to December 22, 2025 [31]. 3. Industrial Chain Supply - Nickel Ore Port Inventory and Electrowinning Nickel Production Profit: As of December 26, the nickel ore inventory at major ports nationwide was 13.7647 million tons, a decrease of 626,700 tons from last week. The production profit of electrowinning nickel was 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 12,000 yuan/ton from last week [37][38]. - Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Imports: In September 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In November 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 12,840.486 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.18%; from January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 209,244.351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 157.2% [43]. - Exchange Inventories: As of December 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 44,454 tons, a decrease of 826 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 255,696 tons, an increase of 2,214 tons from last week [50][51]. Demand - Stainless Steel Production and Exports: In November 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.4931 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 689,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.49%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.042 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. In November 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 109,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons; the export volume was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.4695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,900 tons [55]. - 300 - Series Stainless Steel Inventory in Foshan and Wuxi: As of December 26, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 264,500 tons, a decrease of 21,646 tons from last week; the stainless - steel inventory in Wuxi was 544,038 tons, a decrease of 9,489 tons from last week [60]. - Stainless Steel Production Profit: As of December 26, the stainless - steel production profit was 98 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton from last week [64]. - Real Estate and Home Appliance Industries: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; real estate development investment was 785.909 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.64%; the household refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.67%; the household washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.96%; the freezer production was 2.619 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.17% [68]. - Automobile and Machinery Industries: In November 2025, China's new - energy vehicle production was 3.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%; the sales volume was 3.429 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%. In November 2025, the excavator production was 33,623 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the large - and medium - sized tractor production was 22,592 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.11%; the small - tractor production was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [71].
沪镍不锈钢市场周报：印尼政策成本支撑，镍不锈钢震荡回升-20251226
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-26 09:02