沪锡市场周报：价格调整成交改善，预计锡价震荡偏强-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, with resistance at 345,000 - 350,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin adjusted at a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.31% and an amplitude of 6.10%. The closing price of the main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton [5] - Market Outlook: - Macro - aspect: The US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months [5] - Supply - side: - Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level [5] - At the smelting end, the raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, so the production of refined tin is expected to continue to be restricted, and there is still no year - on - year increase [5] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. However, domestic imports remain in a loss - making state, and the quantity of imported tin is expected to remain low [5] - Demand - side: Recently, the price of tin has corrected at a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot premium has risen to 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has recovered [5] - Technical - aspect: With the price adjustment at a high position of open interest, the bullish atmosphere has weakened, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures and Spot Price: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 337,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,480 yuan/ton or 1.6% from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 42,490 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton or 0.51% from December 18. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of Shanghai tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 300 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - Ratio Situation: As of December 26, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67, an increase of 0.25 from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.02, an increase of 0.23 from December 18 [14] - Open Interest Situation: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 2,656 lots, a decrease of 1,285 lots from December 22, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 102,368 lots, a decrease of 17,373 lots or 14.51% from December 19 [17] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - side: - Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25] - Tin Ore Processing Fees: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025 [30] - Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss: As of December 25, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 9,403.84 yuan/ton, an increase of 471.06 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36] - Inventory Situation: As of December 24, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 4,895 tons, an increase of 705 tons or 16.83% from December 17. As of December 26, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,477 tons, an increase of 382 tons or 4.72% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,969 tons, an increase of 125 tons or 1.59% from December 19 [39] - Demand - side: - Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: On December 24, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,204.37, an increase of 509.06 or 7.6% from December 17. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42] - Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [45]