鸡蛋市场周报：存栏下滑预期支撑，期价低位略有反弹-20251226

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core View - This week, the egg market showed an oscillating upward trend. The market is currently in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short - term, the near - month contracts may fluctuate widely, while the far - month contracts are expected to perform better under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on far - month contracts with a light position [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - The 2603 contract of eggs closed at 2988 yuan/500 kilograms, up 42 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. Due to continuous losses in the breeding end, the enthusiasm for replenishment has declined, the number of old hens culled has increased, and the egg - laying hen inventory has slightly decreased. The current spot price remains low, and the breeding end is still in a loss state, which is beneficial for long - term prices. However, the current in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level, and the culling of old hens has slightly slowed down, which restricts the performance of the near - month market price. [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Top Twenty Positions: The March contract of egg futures oscillated upward, with a position volume of 190,633 lots, an increase of 16,051 lots from last week. The net position of the top twenty was - 44,991, compared with - 52,210 last week, and the net short position decreased [12]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [16]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was reported at 2972 yuan/500 kilograms, down 148 yuan/500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 16 yuan/ton [22]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 598 yuan/500 kilograms, which was at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. - Related Commodity Spot Prices: As of December 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.44 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.75 yuan/kg [32]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm: As of November 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was reported at 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%. The national new - born chick index was reported at 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [38]. - Egg - laying Hen Culling Index and Culling Age: As of November 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen culling index was reported at 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 500 days [43]. - Feed Raw Material Price Trends: As of December 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2338.04 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3080 yuan/ton [47]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of December 19, 2025, the breeding profit per egg - laying hen was reported at - 0.36 yuan, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan/kg [53]. - Egg - laying Hen Chick and Culled Hen Prices: As of December 19, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.80 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 7.90 yuan/kg [57]. - Monthly Egg Export Volume: In November 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,045.52 tons, an increase of 1091.86 tons compared with 11,953.66 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 9.13%. It decreased by 349.02 tons compared with 13,394.53 tons in the previous month [62]. 4. Representative Enterprise - No in - depth analysis of the representative enterprise (Xiaoming Co., Ltd.) is provided except for showing the change of its price - earnings ratio.