合成橡胶市场周报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 12,000 yuan in the short - term [7] - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level this week. The price has slightly increased, but the terminal procurement is weak. The inventory of producers is expected to stay high, while that of traders is expected to decline slightly [8] - The tire enterprises in China have flexible production arrangements this week. The semi - steel tire enterprises' operating rate has increased slightly, and the all - steel tire enterprises' operating rate has decreased. The enterprises are in the seasonal off - season with slow sales and rising inventory [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,150 - 12,000 yuan in the short - term [7] - Market situation: Domestic butadiene rubber supply is high. The price in Shandong market has risen, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina are between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: Supply will remain high. The price is supported by the increase in the mainstream supply price, but due to sufficient resources and year - end production and sales pressure, producer inventory will stay high and trader inventory will decline slightly. Tire enterprises' production is flexible, with semi - steel tire operating rate rising and all - steel tire operating rate falling. The overall sales are slow and inventory is rising [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract has risen by 5.58% this week [12] - Position analysis: No detailed information provided - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 26, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber is - 5 [18] - Warehouse receipts: As of December 25, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts are 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [21] 3.2.2. Spot Market - Price: As of December 25, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market is 11,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week [24] - Basis: As of December 25, the basis of butadiene rubber is - 135 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from last week [24] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of December 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 540.25 US dollars/ton, up 6.33 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27] - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene is 70.61%, up 0.6% from last week; the port inventory is 43,300 tons, up 7,300 tons from last week [30] 3.3.2. Butadiene Rubber Industry - Production and capacity utilization: In November 2025, domestic butadiene rubber production is 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons from last month. As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization is 76.76%, up 0.5% from last week [33] - Production profit: As of December 25, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit is 334 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from last week [36] - Inventory: As of December 26, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory is 34,540 tons, up 530 tons from last week; the producer inventory is 28,850 tons, up 1,250 tons from last week; the trader inventory is 5,690 tons, down 720 tons from last week [40] 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire operating rate: As of December 25, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, up 0.35 percentage points month - on - month and down 8.37 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, down 1.92 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.72 percentage points year - on - year [43] - Tire export volume: In November 2025, China's tire export volume is 688,300 tons, up 5.40% month - on - month and up 1.82% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative export volume is 7.7321 million tons, up 3.51% year - on - year [47]