油料周报-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the fundamentals of the oilseed industry, including supply and demand factors for soybeans, rapeseed, and related products. It also examines the market conditions of various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, considering factors like production, consumption, inventory, and policy impacts [6][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic procurement of US soybeans is slow, with low January arrivals due to slow customs clearance. The December USDA report met market expectations, and the market is focused on South American soybean planting and weather. There are concerns about potential supply pressure from South American soybean production in March - May next year. State reserve soybean auctions, although with low trading volumes, have put short - term supply pressure. Weak demand due to farming losses and seasonal factors, along with low prices leading to crushing losses for oil mills, which have price - support expectations [6]. - Import reduction has led to near - zero domestic rapeseed inventory, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by import tariffs. Uncertainty from Sino - Canadian negotiations has raised concerns about supply shortages, but increased arrivals from Australia are expected to keep December and January rapeseed imports at historical average levels. With the seasonal decline in aquaculture demand, prices have rebounded, and there are concerns about supply contraction due to potential import shortages [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - Raw material pressure persists. Oil mills have reduced crushing volumes due to weakening profit margins, slightly easing domestic supply. The demand side faces a traditional peak season with support from New Year and Spring Festival demand. Overseas biodiesel policies are changeable, and attention should be paid to US and Indonesian policies [38][39]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's December supply - demand data exceeded expectations, with higher - than - expected inventory accumulation. China's November imports reached a high, and domestic inventory remains at a high level. Overseas biodiesel policies are changeable. Supply countries may face seasonal production cuts around the Spring Festival, leading to expectations of inventory reduction in January - February [40]. Rapeseed Oil - High tariffs on imported rapeseed persist, and the volume of Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain. The lack of results from Sino - Canadian negotiations has led to continued concerns about import shortages. Reduced imports have led to continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil in China. Rapeseed oil has shown relatively stronger performance compared to other oils due to lower inventory levels [41].