全国二手房市场年报

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the second-hand housing market, suggesting a potential for stabilization in the future, particularly in first-tier cities due to their liquidity advantages [12][13]. Core Insights - The overall supply-demand balance in the second-hand housing market is currently loose, with a notable imbalance in supply and demand across various city tiers, especially pronounced in third and fourth-tier cities [12][13]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing listing durations and decreasing average prices across all city tiers, indicating a market adjustment phase [17][59]. - The demand side is expected to accumulate energy for a potential rebound, with policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations and guiding buyer sentiment [43][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Annual Trends in Second-Hand Housing - The market is characterized by a "supply increase and demand decrease" trend, with a concentration of cities in these categories compared to 2024 [19][20]. - The report anticipates that if demand breaks through in 2026, certain cities may transition to a "supply decrease and demand increase" phase [20]. 2. Listing Volume - The average monthly listing volume for 2025 is projected to be 259.37 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.09%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to 2024 [32][33]. - First-tier cities show a slower growth rate in listings, while third and fourth-tier cities lead in growth [32][38]. 3. Heat Index - The average heat index for 2025 is 71.25, indicating a slight decline from 2024, with a significant drop from 2023 [41][45]. - All city tiers experienced a decline in heat index, with first-tier cities showing the most significant drops [42][53]. 4. Listing Duration - The average listing duration for 2025 is 93.37 days, reflecting a long-term upward trend, although the growth rate has begun to stabilize [59][62]. - First-tier cities have longer listing durations due to high prices and strict regulations, while third and fourth-tier cities face low demand leading to prolonged listing times [60][61]. 5. Average Listing Price - The average listing price across all city tiers has continued to decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a decrease of 7.87% [7][17]. - The report suggests that the focus of policies will shift towards guiding prices as the market stabilizes [17].