有色套利早报-20251229

Group 1: Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Domestic spot price is 97,800, three - month price is 98,860, LME three - month price is 12,133, and the ratio is 8.11 [1] Zinc - Domestic spot price is 23,200, three - month price is 23,215, LME three - month price is 3,087, and the ratio is 5.62 [1] Aluminum - Domestic spot price is 22,020, three - month price is 22,470, LME three - month price is 2,957, and the ratio is 7.54 [1] Nickel - Domestic spot price is 128,750, and the profit from spot import is 45.32 [1] Lead - Domestic spot price is 17,225, three - month price is 17,535, LME three - month price is 2,000, and the ratio is 11.58 [3] Group 2: Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 2,730, 2,870, 2,930, and 2,910 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 582, 1,062, 1,551, and 2,040 respectively [4] Zinc - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 140, 185, 230, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 342, 466, and 591 respectively [4] Aluminum - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 210, 275, 300, and 345 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 345, 468, and 591 respectively [4] Lead - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 275, 255, 255, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 211, 319, 426, and 534 respectively [4] Nickel - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 1,770, 2,050, 2,410, and 2,860 respectively [4] Tin - The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 1,350, and the theoretical spread is 6,941 [4] Group 3: Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 1,740 and 990 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 149 and 1,087 respectively [4] Zinc - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 170 and - 30 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 146 and 281 respectively [4] Lead - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 55 and 330 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 153 and 268 respectively [5] Group 4: Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.26, 4.40, 5.64, 0.97, 1.28, and 0.76 respectively [5]