集运早报-20251229

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the EC2602 contract, future trends depend on spot prices. It's difficult to predict the peak height, timing of the January freight rates, and subsequent price - drop rhythms. At current levels, entry is not recommended [2]. - The EC2604 contract has a moderately high valuation, but there is a short - term upward risk due to factors such as capital position transfer, geopolitical reversals, pre - holiday position reduction, and price increase announcements after reaching a price bottom. The strategy is to short on rallies [2]. - The far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitics. Given the long - term logic of resumption of navigation and off - season, the strategy for the EC2610 contract is to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1613.0, with a change of 0.31% and a decline of 23.8. The trading volume was 85 [1]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1824.5, with a change of 1.38% and a decline of 235.3. The trading volume was 26553 [1]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1154.8, with a change of - 0.83% and an increase of 434.4. The trading volume was 7478 [1]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1316.2, with a change of - 0.29% and an increase of 273.0. The trading volume was 734 [1]. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1486.1, with a change of - 0.71% and an increase of 103.1. The trading volume was 62 [1]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1049.3, with a change of - 0.92% and an increase of 539.9. The trading volume was 939 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 458.2, with a daily increase of 14.7 and a weekly decrease of 57.4 [1]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was - 211.5, with a daily decrease of 19.8 and a weekly decrease of 167.3 [1]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 669.7, with a daily increase of 34.5 and a weekly increase of 109.9 [1]. Shipping Indexes - SCFIS (European Line): On 2025/12/22, the index was 1589.20 points, with a 5.21% increase from the previous period. On 2025/12/26, the price was 1690 dollars/TEU [1]. - CCFI: On 2025/12/26, the index was 1519.06 points, with a 3.06% increase from the previous period [1]. - NCFI: On 2025/12/26, the index was 1144.37 points, with a 7.22% increase from the previous period [1]. European Line Spot Freight Quotes - Week 52: Maersk (MSK) opened at 2300 dollars, and other companies mainly followed Week 51. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures [3]. - Week 1: Maersk (MSK) opened at 2500 dollars, OA at 2700 - 2800 dollars (EMC's partial routes at 2500+ dollars), and PA at 2800 dollars (Jiliang at 2600 dollars). The central price was 1950 dollars, equivalent to about 1950 points on the futures [3]. - Week 2: Maersk (MSK) kept the price flat at 2500 dollars, but the price at Hamburg Port was 2600 dollars (a 100 - dollar increase from the previous period) [3]. Related News - On December 28, differences between the US and Israel over the Gaza issue emerged. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the US, aiming to persuade the US to accept Israel's tougher stance on the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]. - On December 27, the rift in the Gulf region deepened as Saudi Arabia attacked a Yemeni faction supported by the UAE [4].