Yongan Futures(SH:600927) Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-29 01:23Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View During the Christmas holiday, trading volume in the overseas market was light, and crude oil prices declined on Friday night. The market is focused on geopolitical situations, with Iran warning Israel and the US not to launch attacks. EIA weekly reports and ARA inventory updates are on hold. Global oil inventories are decreasing, while Singapore's oil inventories are increasing. Gasoline and diesel cracks are oscillating weakly, with a large fundamental surplus. If geopolitical risks subside, the surplus in the first quarter will be four times the seasonal level. Short - term spreads and absolute prices should be under - allocated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Price Data - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated from $58.01 to $56.74, BRENT from $62.07 to $60.64, and DUBAI from $62.12 to $61.86. Other related prices such as SC, OMAN, and various refined products also showed different degrees of change [3]. b. Daily News - Hamas claims that Israel has not fulfilled the cease - fire agreement and calls on the US to pressure Israel. Hamas hopes to complete the agreement's terms and enter the second phase, and emphasizes that the future management committee in the Gaza Strip should be composed of Palestinians [3]. - Iranian President warns the US and Israel not to launch new attacks, stating that Iran is stronger now than before the June attacks [4]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet with European leaders after meeting with US President Trump to seek a stronger stance against Russia [4]. c. Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, compared to the previous value of - 932.2 million barrels. API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels (previous value: 251.1 million barrels), and API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels (previous value: 483.5 million barrels) [4][5]. - EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a 0.3% decline. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.0 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day. US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day from the previous week. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 0.82% year - on - year [5].