大越期货贵金属早报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the Chicago Exchange raised margins, causing the gold price to fall in the morning. The silver price increase pushed up the gold price, but the gold price followed the silver price down. The overseas Christmas holiday may still lead to abnormal price surges, and the low gold - silver ratio provides support for the gold price. The Shanghai gold premium has expanded to - 5 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, during the Christmas holiday, the domestic silver price continued to rise significantly. The news of the Chicago Exchange raising margins led to a sharp drop in the silver price in the morning. Historically, such margin hikes have caused significant silver price drops. The overseas silver price has started to fall after breaking through the 80 - dollar mark, while the Shanghai silver price may still冲击 the 20,000 - mark, with large fluctuations expected today, so cautious operation is advised. The Shanghai silver premium has continued to expand to 1,800 yuan/gram [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The Chicago Exchange raised margins, the U.S. three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, most U.S. bond yields declined (10 - year U.S. bond yield fell 0.78 basis points to 4.128%), the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.03, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 7.0063 at night, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.31% to $4,562.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold in macro - environment, COMEX silver futures rose 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's focus includes the summary of Japan's monetary policy opinions, the U.S. November existing - home sales, China's December regular press conference of CCPIT, the U.S. November pending home sales index, and the U.S. December Dallas Fed business activity index [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 5.17 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures warrants is 93,711 kg, unchanged (bearish) [4]. - Silver: The basis is + 181 (spot at a premium to futures, neutral); the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 852,417 kg, a decrease of 29,532 kg (bullish) [5]. 3.4. Position Data - Gold: The main net long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The main net long position increased [5]. 3.5. Logic Analysis - Gold: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. Recent Fed rate - cuts and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have both positive and negative impacts, and with liquidity concerns, the upward momentum of the gold price exists but is limited [9]. - Silver: It mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the price increase may expand [12]. 3.6. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Gold - Bullish: The world is in turmoil with existing risk - aversion sentiment; there is still an expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns remain; the low gold - silver ratio provides support [4]. - Bearish: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the basis shows the spot at a discount to futures; the inventory remains unchanged [4]. - Silver - Bullish: Global turmoil with risk - aversion sentiment; the expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns; support from non - ferrous metal tariffs; support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors; low spot inventory and active supply - shortage game [13]. - Bearish: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the Fed's internal division may lead to a pause in rate - cuts; the European fiscal expansion is less than expected; the risk preference deteriorates again; the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks; the limited possibility of short - squeezing due to no obvious supply shortage [13].