大越期货燃料油早报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient supply and sluggish downstream bunkering activities during the year - end holiday season [3]. - As of the week of December 22, the petroleum product inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 0.9%, with the increase in gasoline and other light fuel oil inventories offsetting the decline in heavy and medium fuel oil inventories [3]. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of December 17 was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [3]. - The prices of fuel oil are above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil main position is long, with long positions decreasing; the low - sulfur fuel oil main position is long, with long positions increasing [3]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the continuous attacks on energy facilities support the prices of the crude oil sector. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure will remain at the current level, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market still has support. In the short term, it will operate in a volatile manner. FU2603 will operate in the range of 2470 - 2510, and LU2603 will operate in the range of 2980 - 3030 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory increased in the week of December 17. The prices are above the 20 - day line, and the main positions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are long with different trends. In the short term, it will operate in a volatile manner [3]. - The futures prices of FU and LU main contracts increased slightly, while the basis of FU decreased by 193.13% and that of LU decreased by 54.47% [5]. - Among the daily spot prices, the price of舟山 low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.32%, the price of中东 high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.51%, and the price of Singapore diesel increased by 1.53% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors include Russia's fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. - The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals are neutral. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, the inventory in Fujairah, UAE has changed, the basis is in a flat - water state, the inventory in Singapore has increased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main positions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are long with different trends [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No detailed analysis provided in the report, only a graph of high - and low - sulfur futures spreads (FU - LU) is shown [11] 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory data from October 8 to December 17 is presented. For example, on October 8, the inventory was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels compared to the previous period; on December 17, it was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels compared to the previous period [8]