大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, last week there were more changes in PTA plants, but the downstream polyester load also decreased. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself changed little. The futures market followed the cost side to rise significantly. The spot basis loosened. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the changes of upstream and downstream plants [6]. - For MEG, last week the entry of ethylene glycol ships into tanks was smooth. It is expected that the visible inventory will still increase at the beginning of next week. Fundamentally, ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in the near - term, but the supply - demand structure will improve from March. This week, polyester plants implemented moderate production cuts, and the monthly average load was revised down. The overseas supply of ethylene glycol will be further squeezed, and it will gradually be reflected in the import volume from February. In reality, the high port inventory and the continuous accumulation situation will restrict the rebound height of ethylene glycol. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will be range - bound in the near future, and there is certain buying support at low levels [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Hints - PTA: - On Friday, the mainstream of December goods was traded at a discount of 65 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5100 - 5250. January goods were traded at a discount of 60 to the 05 contract, and February goods at a discount of 50. December warehouse receipts were traded at around 05 - 73. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 05 - 65. The spot price was 5170, and the 05 contract basis was - 110, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract increased [6][7]. - MEG: - On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and then weakened, with weak buying sentiment. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market was narrowly sorted at a low level, and the spot was negotiated at a discount of 160 - 152 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated upward, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. At the end of the session, next - week's spot was negotiated at a discount of 146 - 148 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated upward. In the morning, the recent shipments were negotiated at around 440 - 442 US dollars/ton, and the buyers in the market were cautious. In the afternoon, the negotiation of January shipments rebounded to around 448 - 450 US dollars/ton, and the trading was stalemate. The domestic and foreign market transaction negotiation ranges were 3632 - 3700 yuan/ton and 440 - 448 US dollars/ton respectively. The spot price was 3670, and the 05 contract basis was - 176, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in the East China region was 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Device Changes: - A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has stopped for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. - The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. - A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted after heating up. It was shut down for maintenance at the end of November. - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th. It was shut down for maintenance in November [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [13]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory [14]. - Price and Profit Data: - It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from December 25 to December 26, 2025, as well as the profit data of different production methods of PTA and MEG and polyester products [15]. - Historical Data Charts: There are multiple historical data charts, including the price, production profit, start - up rate, inventory, and spread data of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., covering the time range from 2020 to 2025 [18][21][24][27][28][32][35][39][42][45][47][50][52][54][57][59][61][62][63][66][68][70][71][73].