大越期货尿素早报-20251229

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a Urea Morning Report dated December 29, 2025, from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][4] - It provides an overview of the urea market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, and other aspects, and predicts the market trend [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Positive factors include inventory de - stocking; negative factors include domestic oversupply and new highs in daily production. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [4][5] Group 4: Key Points by Category Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate are stable, comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demand is on - demand. The export demand has declined in the short term, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. The spot price of the deliverable is 1710 (+0), and the fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 25, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons (-7.2), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] - Outlook: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. Industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is de - stocking, short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea market has shown growth in capacity, production, and consumption. For example, in 2019, capacity increased by 8.9% compared to the previous year, and consumption increased by 12.8% [9] Market Data - Spot prices: The spot price of the deliverable is 1710, the Shandong spot price is 1730, and the Henan spot price is 1710, with no change [6] - Futures prices: The price of the 05 contract is 1735 (-5), the UR01 is 1667 (-8), and the UR09 is 1701 (-4) [6] - Inventory data: The warehouse receipt is 10,750, UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons (-7.2), UR factory inventory is 106.9 million tons (-11.1), and UR port inventory is 17.7 million tons (+3.9) [6]