大越期货玻璃周报-20251229

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The glass market's fundamentals are weak with high inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Although there is an expectation of further cold repair in the industry due to low production profits, the real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the deep - processing industry has issues such as poor fund collection, leading to cautious attitudes among traders and processors [3][6][7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Categories Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract FG2605 last week was 1057 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from the previous week. The spot benchmark price in Hebei Shahe was 920 yuan/ton, down 2.54% from the previous week. The main basis was - 137 yuan/ton, up 41.24% [2][9]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 920 yuan/ton, down 2.54% from the previous week [15]. Fundamentals - Cost and Profit No specific content provided other than the topic of "glass production profit". Fundamentals - Supply - There were 218 operating float glass production lines nationwide last week, with an operating rate of 73.89%. The daily melting capacity was 154,500 tons, both at historically low levels during the same period [21][23]. Fundamentals - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [27]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 58.623 million weight - boxes as of December 25, up 0.11% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44]. Influencing Factors Summary - Likely Positive: There is an expectation of further cold repair in the glass industry due to low production profits [6]. - Likely Negative: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, with the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises at a historically low level during the same period. The fund collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly consuming the original sheet inventory [7]. Main Logic - The glass supply is at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing plants are dismal, and the glass factory inventory is rising. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [8].