大越期货纯碱周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward, with the main contract SA2605 closing 2.04% higher than the previous week at 1,200 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. Supply is expected to remain abundant next week, with an estimated weekly output of 720,000 tons and an operating rate of 83% due to fewer maintenance enterprises. Downstream demand is tepid, mainly on a need - by - need basis, and some downstream inventories are high. The market sentiment is weak with insufficient drivers. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased. As of December 25, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,176 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.04%. The low - end price of heavy soda in Shahe increased from 1,125 yuan/ton to 1,135 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.89%. The main base difference increased by 27.45% from - 51 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - Price: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. [13] - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton, at a historical low. [16] - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.65%. The weekly output was 711,900 tons, including 385,600 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy - alkalinity rate was 54.16%. [19][22][25] - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons. [26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - Output Ratio: The weekly sales - to - output ratio of soda ash was 108.54%. [29] - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 154,500 tons, with an operating rate of 73.89%. [32] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average. [38] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate. [39] 3.6 Influence Factor Summary - Positive Factors: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow. [5] - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, with large production - launch plans this year, and the industry output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. [6] 3.7 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. [7]