大越期货玻璃早报-20251229

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With low production profits, high inventory, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1057 yuan/ton, showing a 0.96% increase from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe safety large - board glass is 920 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the previous value. The main basis is - 137 yuan/ton, with a 19.13% change [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 920 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit is low, and there is an expectation of further cold repair in the industry [4]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 218, with an operating rate of 73.89%. The daily melting capacity is 154,500 tons, both at historically low levels in the same period [22][24]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [28][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.623 million weight boxes, a 0.11% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, showing data such as production, consumption, and net import ratio, as well as their growth rates [45]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Low glass production profit leads to an expectation of further cold repair in the industry [4]. - Negative Factors: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from glass deep - processing enterprises; poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry and cautious attitudes of traders and processors [4]. Main Logic - With low glass supply, dismal orders from downstream deep - processing factories, and rising glass factory inventories, it is expected that the glass market will mainly show a weak and volatile trend at a low level [5].