大越期货菜粕早报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2420. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the spot demand in the off - season and low inventory, and uncertainties in China - Canada trade, it will maintain a short - term range - bound pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded with fluctuations, and the spot price followed. The spot premium remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract remained low. The arrival of imported rapeseed increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained low, and the rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained at zero operation. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [18][20][23] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, while the demand is decreasing, suppressing the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and an import deposit of 75.8% was imposed. If the final ruling is established, the deposit will be levied as additional tariffs and will not be refunded, but the final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, especially in Canada where the output was higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; no pressure on the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills. - Bearish factors: domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12] 3.4 Fundamental Data - From December 18th to 26th, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 tons, and the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated between 7.46 - 22.56 tons. The average trading price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 574 - 612. - From December 18th to 26th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (near - term 2601) fluctuated between 2389 - 2459, the price of the main contract 2605 fluctuated between 2323 - 2391, and the spot price (Fujian) fluctuated between 2490 - 2560. - From December 17th to 26th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 0 every day [13][15][17] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental: Rapeseed meal rebounded with fluctuations, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, it is neutral. - Basis: The spot price is 2560, the basis is 169, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, the same as last week. Compared with 2800 tons in the same period last year, it decreased by 100%, which is bullish. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, indicating a bullish signal. - Main positions: The long positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed in, indicating a bullish signal. - Expectation: Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern. With the recent off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, it will maintain a short - term volatile pattern, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9]