《金融》日报-20251229

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Precious Metals: The expected central price of gold in 2026 will gradually rise, targeting over $4,800. Some investors are pre - positioning in precious metals, leading to increased ETF and derivatives positions. In the short - term, the market will remain strong without clear negative factors. For silver, due to favorable financial and industrial attributes, strong physical demand and tight inventory, the "irrational" price increase may continue. However, investors should watch for regulatory measures and potential price corrections. In the domestic market, the newly - listed futures on Guangzhou Futures Exchange have low liquidity, and there is a risk of short - term price fluctuations. It is recommended to lock in profits and wait for a more stable market after the New Year [3]. - Container Shipping: The settlement price indices of container shipping, such as SCFIS and SCFI, have shown varying degrees of increase. The futures prices of container shipping contracts have also changed, and the fundamentals show that the global container shipping capacity supply remains stable, while some overseas economic indicators have slightly declined [5]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures Spread - Futures - Spot Spread: The IF futures - spot spread is - 18.84, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 13.10% and an all - time quantile of 49.10%. The IH futures - spot spread is 4.84, with corresponding quantiles of 94.60% and 87.10%. The IC futures - spot spread is - 70.84, and the IM futures - spot spread is - 133.13 [1]. - Inter - period Spread: Different inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM show various values and quantiles. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread for IF is - 15.00, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 35.60% [1]. - Cross - variety Ratio: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., also have their respective values and quantiles. For instance, the CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.6016, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 97.90% [1]. Bond Futures Basis and Spread - Basis: On December 26, 2025, the TS basis is - 0.0682, the TF basis is 0.0192, the T basis is - 0.0127, and the TL basis is - 0.1615, with different historical quantiles [2]. - Inter - period Spread: For example, the current - quarter minus next - quarter spread for TS is - 0.0480, with a historical quantile of 15.30% [2]. - Cross - variety Spread: The TS - TF spread is - 0.0220, the TS - T spread is - 5.7520, etc., with corresponding historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals - Domestic and Foreign Futures Closing Prices: On December 26, 2025, the AU2602 contract closed at 1016.30 yuan/gram, up 0.75% from the previous day. COMEX gold closed at $4,562.00, up 1.26% [3]. - Spot Prices: London gold was at $4,532.51 per ounce, up 1.19%. Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold TD was at 1008.80 yuan/gram, up 0.58% [3]. - Basis: The gold TD - Shanghai gold futures spread is - 7.50, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 6.80% [3]. - Price Ratios: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 57.26, down 8.66% [3]. - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.14%, down 0.2%, and the US dollar index is 98.03, up 0.13% [3]. - Inventory and Positions: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 4.25% to 97,692 units, while the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.36% to 449,727,730 units [3]. Container Shipping - Shipping Indices: The SCFIS (European route) settled at 1589.20 points on December 22, up 5.21% from December 15. The SCFI composite index was 1552.92 points on December 19, up 3.08% from December 12 [5]. - Futures Prices and Basis: The EC2602 (main contract) closed at 1824.5 on December 26, up 1.38% from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was - 235.3, down 11.78% [5]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity supply remained at 3365.73 million TEU on December 29. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai in November was 40.00%, down 18.50% from October [5].