低位买盘支撑，菜粕震荡回升

Report Summary Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to rapeseed meal, indicating a short - term oscillatory pattern [8]. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal has rebounded with low - level buying support and is affected by the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. With the domestic rapeseed meal entering the off - season of supply and demand, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The key factors include the impact of soybean meal, the outcome of the Canada - China trade negotiation, and the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [8]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Prompt - The current situation of rapeseed meal is neutral. The basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures. The inventory is bullish with zero tons and a 100% year - on - year decrease. The price on the disk is bullish as it is above the 20 - day moving average and rising. The main positions are bullish with an increase in long positions and capital inflow. Overall, it is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season, leading to a tightening supply expectation in the spot market and a decrease in demand. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been initially ruled in favor, and import margins are being levied. Global rapeseed production has increased, but the Canada - China trade issue has affected the short - term supply in China [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the initial anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, zero rapeseed meal inventory, and the increase in main long positions. Bearish factors are the off - season of domestic aquaculture and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [8][11]. 4. Fundamental Data - The rapeseed supply - demand balance shows changes in harvest area, production, and inventory over the years. The rapeseed meal supply - demand balance also shows trends in production, demand, and inventory. In December, the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased slightly, and the oil mill's rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels. Aquatic product prices are mixed, with fish prices slightly falling and shrimp and shellfish prices stable [16][18][19]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and capital has flowed in [8]. 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has rebounded due to low - level buying. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show short - term rebounds, but the upward space is limited. The mid - term is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, and the future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. 7. Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the growth and harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports, and China's imports and oil mill operations. Secondary factors include domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, as well as oil mill rapeseed meal inventory and downstream procurement. Macro factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict are also to be considered [45].