大越期货豆粕早报-20251229

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. Viewpoints and Strategies for Soybean Meal - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2740 - 2800. The market is currently neutral due to a combination of factors such as the performance of US soybeans, the demand for domestic soybean meal, and inventory levels [9]. 2. Viewpoints and Strategies for Soybeans - Soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4080 - 4180. The market is also neutral, influenced by the US - China trade agreement, South American soybean planting weather, and the supply - demand situation of domestic soybeans [11]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China has decreased in December, but the soybean inventory of oil mills remains high. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and the soybean meal market has returned to range - bound fluctuations [13]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, which supports the price of soybean meal. The market is affected by both the performance of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation has an impact. The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, waiting for more information on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Long Factors: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - Short Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; if the weather is normal, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - Long Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - Short Factors: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data - From December 18 to 26, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal fluctuated, while the rapeseed meal had no transactions during this period. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated slightly [17]. Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data - From December 19 to 26, the prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and spot prices all showed certain fluctuations. The spot price of soybean meal was generally higher than the futures price [19]. Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data - From December 17 to 26, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, and soybean meal changed to varying degrees [21]. Soybean Meal Spot Price Data - The spot price of soybean meal fluctuates with the futures price, and the premium of the spot price over the futures price has a slight fluctuation [24]. Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Data - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33][34]. Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress Data - The report provides the planting and harvesting progress data of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026, including the planting rate, harvesting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, leaf - falling rate, and other indicators [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report Data - The report provides the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025, including data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume of the US, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [45]. Other Fundamental Data - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [46]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December has increased slightly, with an overall year - on - year increase [48]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report