氯碱周报：SH：供需偏弱形势依然严峻，预计价格反弹后重回弱势，V：供给高位仍未缓解，需求淡季价格承压-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand situation in the caustic soda industry remains severe. Although the operating rate has declined slightly and inventory has decreased marginally this week, the inventory level is still relatively high compared to the same period in recent years. Downstream demand is weak, and there are no obvious short - term positive factors. The price is expected to be bearish next week. The Shandong market performs poorly, and there are expectations of price cuts in alumina procurement in Shanxi and Henan, which is negative for the Shandong market. The supply in Shandong remains high, and further price cuts are possible. In the East China region, the supply of liquid caustic soda plants is expected to increase, while downstream demand shows no substantial improvement. The current strong performance of the futures price lacks real support, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [2]. - PVC: This week, PVC prices continued to rise driven by commodities. The operating rate decreased slightly, but the inventory remained at a high level, and demand was persistently weak. During the off - season, the operating rate of hard products was at a low level, while that of soft products was relatively stable. Market transactions were mainly based on spot fixed - price sales. As prices rose, downstream观望 sentiment increased, and high - price exports faced significant resistance. The cost support was weak. Currently in the traditional off - season, outdoor construction in the north is decreasing, and the overall real estate demand reduction has a negative impact. The international market is highly competitive, and exports have limited support. The overall demand side performs poorly, and the current weak fundamentals of PVC spot are difficult to support the continued rise of the PVC market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - Price and Market: The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand relationships, and cost fluctuations. The spot price has also been affected by factors like alumina procurement prices. The current price is expected to be bearish in the short term [2][8]. - Supply: As of Thursday this week, the national weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises was 88.47%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points from last week. The inventory in East China decreased slightly, while that in Shandong increased due to high supply and weak demand [27]. - Device Status: Some enterprises in different regions are in a state of shutdown, half - load operation, or maintenance. The total maintenance loss this week was 3.15 tons, and there are also planned maintenance arrangements in the future [28]. - Alumina Demand: From the end of 24 to 25, there are plans to put into production 1230 tons of alumina capacity (including 200 tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will be over 8800 tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons annually, with a relatively concentrated increase of 15 tons from April to June [32]. - Export: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, but the estimated export profit increased slightly [58]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price and Market: PVC spot prices continued to rise this week driven by the sentiment of commodities. However, the fundamentals of the spot market are weak, and it is difficult to support continued price increases [3][66]. - Profit: This week, as prices rose, the industry profit was slightly repaired [71]. - Supply: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased slightly this week. There was a new enterprise under maintenance, and the maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate was 75.42%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder increased by 0.45 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder decreased by 3.33 percentage points [87]. - Device Status: There are long - term shutdown, maintenance, and temporary shutdown situations in different enterprises. The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week was 5.362 tons, an increase of 0.495 tons from last week. It is expected that the maintenance loss will decrease next week [89][91]. - Demand: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry is still in a bottom - building period, providing negative feedback on demand. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years. Raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, and it is difficult for the downstream of PVC to have positive driving forces [93]. - Inventory: The total inventory is still at the highest level compared to recent years [101]. - Export: In November 2025, PVC exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, while imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [118].