大越期货原油周报-20251229

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $56.93 per barrel, up 0.69% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $60.33 per barrel, up 0.35% for the week; China's SC crude futures closed at 432.6 yuan per barrel, up 1.41% for the week [6]. - The market's sensitivity to "tail risks on the supply side" has increased recently, but different risks have different impacts. The military strike in northwestern Nigeria is more of a geopolitical noise, while the economic pressure on Venezuelan crude is more likely to affect the actual flow of oil. Other export disturbances in oil - producing countries will also affect the term structure of the market [7]. - The discussion of the peace proposal between Russia and Ukraine is a "directional binary variable." If the negotiation progresses and sanctions are expected to be relaxed, the medium - term center of Brent crude may move down; otherwise, the risk premium will not fully subside [7]. - Due to the approaching New Year's Day, there will be no major macro - data releases, and the global financial market will remain in a state of extremely low liquidity. Oil prices mainly depend on geopolitical situations. Without new conflicts, they are likely to fluctuate [8]. - For trading, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 425 - 450, and long - term investors should wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $56.93 per barrel, up 0.69% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $60.33 per barrel, up 0.35% for the week; China's SC crude futures closed at 432.6 yuan per barrel, up 1.41% for the week [6]. - The US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers and the possible conflict between the US and Venezuela, as well as the uncertainty in the Russia - Ukraine situation, initially supported oil prices. However, the statement of the Ukrainian President at the end of the week reduced geopolitical concerns and caused oil prices to fall [6]. - The Israeli military's air strikes in Lebanon and the relevant remarks from Iran also added geopolitical risks [6]. - The Ukrainian President plans to meet with the US President to discuss ending the military action in Ukraine, including issues such as the future of the Donbass region and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant [7]. 3.2 Related News - The market's sensitivity to "tail risks on the supply side" has increased, but different risks have different impacts. The military strike in northwestern Nigeria is short - term noise, while the economic pressure on Venezuelan crude may cause regional shortages of light and medium - quality crude oil. Other export disturbances in oil - producing countries will affect the term structure of the market [7]. - The discussion of the peace proposal between Russia and Ukraine is a "directional binary variable" that affects the medium - term trend of oil prices [7]. 3.3 Outlook - Due to the approaching New Year's Day, there will be no major macro - data releases, and the global financial market will remain in a state of extremely low liquidity. Oil prices mainly depend on geopolitical situations. Without new conflicts, they are likely to fluctuate [8]. - For trading, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 425 - 450, and long - term investors should wait and see [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot prices of various crude oil varieties increased last week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd rose from $61.22 to $63.26, with a increase of 3.33% [12]. - The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory have fluctuated in recent months. For example, the Cushing inventory decreased by 74.2 million barrels on December 12 compared to the previous period [14]. 3.5持仓数据 - As of the week of December 16, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 74,876 contracts to 32,940 contracts; the speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased by 3,537 contracts to 54,896 contracts [6].