贵金属期现日报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The expected central price of gold in 2026 will gradually rise, targeting above $4,800. Some investors are pre - positioning in precious metals, leading to continuous increases in ETF holdings and rising derivative positions. Without clear negative factors, the short - term market will maintain a strong trend. However, investors should guard against short - term sharp fluctuations, maintain a long - only mindset but lock in profits in a timely manner [1]. - Silver, supported by favorable financial and industrial attributes, has strong physical demand and persistent inventory shortages. The "irrational" upward trend driven by market sentiment may not end soon. Future attention should be paid to risk - control measures by exchanges like CME and potential price corrections due to global commodity index rebalancing, which could provide a long - term buying opportunity. Also, monitor the repair of the domestic premium. Before the New Year's Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce positions or lock in positions on rallies [1]. - In the domestic market, the platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are in the early stage of listing, with overall low liquidity in positions and a domestic premium compared to the overseas market. As regulatory risk - control measures strengthen, long - position holders with large profits may take profits on rallies, leading to significant short - term price fluctuations. It is advised to wait and see before the holiday and lock in long positions in a timely manner, then make new allocations after the market stabilizes in the new year [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1,016.30 yuan/tael on December 26, up 7.54 yuan or 0.75% from December 25 [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 18,319 yuan/kg on December 26, up 922 yuan or 5.30% from December 25 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 686 (unit unclear), up 29.30 (unit unclear) or 4.46% from December 25 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 529.05 yuan/g on December 26, down 49.40 yuan or 8.54% from December 25 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at $4,562 on December 26, up $56.60 or 1.26% from December 24 [1]. - COMEX silver main contract closed at $79.68 on December 26, up $7.80 or 10.85% from December 24 [1]. - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2,513.90/ounce on December 26, up $241.00 or 10.60% from December 24 [1]. - NYMEX lithium gold main contract closed at $2,060.50 on December 26, up $239.50 or 13.15% from December 24 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at $4,532.51 on December 26, up $53.11 or 1.19% from December 25 [1]. - London silver was at $79.33 on December 26, up $7.52 or 10.47% from December 25 [1]. - Spot platinum was at $2,459.50/ounce on December 26, up $251.50 or 11.39% from December 25 [1]. - Spot palladium was at $1,925 on December 26, up $88 or 4.79% from December 25 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1,008.80 yuan/tael on December 26, up 5.79 yuan or 0.58% from December 25 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18,469 yuan/kg on December 26, up 1,055 yuan or 6.06% from December 25 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 662 yuan/gram on December 26, up 71 yuan or 11.99% from December 25 [1]. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 7.50, down 1.75 from the previous value, at the 6.80% historical one - year quantile [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was 150, up 133 from the previous value, at the 95.90% historical one - year quantile [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold basis was - 29.49, down 3.49 from the previous value, at the 26.90% historical one - year quantile [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver basis was - 0.35, down 0.28 from the previous value, at the 38.70% historical one - year quantile [1]. Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 57.26, down 5.43 or 8.66% from the previous value [1]. - Another price ratio was 55.48, down 2.51 or - 4.32% from the previous value [1]. - NYMEX platinum/aluminum ratio was 1.22, down 0.03 or - 2.25% from the previous value [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.30, up 0.16 or 14.21% from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.14%, down 0.01 percentage points or - 0.2% from the previous value [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.46%, down 0.01 percentage points or - 0.3% from the previous value [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91%, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - US dollar index was 98.03, up 0.13 or 0.13% from the previous value [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.0042, up 0.0032 or 0.05% from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 97,692, up 3,981 or 4.25% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 819,431 kg, down 32,986 kg or - 3.87% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory was 36,191,255, up 31,894 or 0.09% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory was 449,727,730, down 1,624,956 or - 0.36% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19,361,515 [1]. - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,624,307, up 1,268,758 or 1.00% from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,071, up 2.86 or 0.27% from the previous value [1]. - SLV silver ETF holdings were 16,391, down 56.40 or - 0.34% from the previous value [1].