广发期货《黑色》日报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Steel Industry: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. Steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction support prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread for rebar and focus on the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. - Iron Ore Industry: Iron ore prices are likely to oscillate. Supply remains at a relatively high level, demand recovery is limited, and inventory is accumulating, but the marginal space for inventory accumulation is narrowing. It is recommended to use short - term range trading for the 05 contract, with the range from 760 - 810 [4]. - Coke and Coking Coal Industry: For coke, after the third - round spot price cut, the basis weakens, and the expected rebound is hard to sustain. It is advisable to take profit on long positions of the 2605 contract and switch to short - selling on rallies, and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, the rebound expectation is overdrawn, so take profit on long positions and switch to short - selling on rallies, also using the same arbitrage strategy [7]. - Silicon Iron Industry: Silicon iron supply - demand contradictions need to be alleviated. Although the production cut expectation is priced in, there is insufficient improvement in demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the 5500 - 5700 range [9]. - Silicon Manganese Industry: Silicon manganese is in a state of self - supply - demand imbalance, but the overall situation is relatively flat. Manganese ore prices support the cost. The price is expected to continue to be weak. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost, with short - term trading as the main approach [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices also showed mixed trends [1]. - Cost and Profit: Steel billet and plate billet prices decreased slightly, and most steel product profits declined [1]. - Supply: Daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, while the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased [1]. - Trading and Demand: Building material trading volume increased, but the apparent demand for five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt cost and spot prices of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, while the basis and spreads showed different changes [4]. - Supply: Global iron ore shipments and port arrivals decreased slightly, but remained at a high level in the same period of history [4]. - Demand: Pig iron and crude steel production decreased, while daily average iron ore port clearance increased slightly [4]. - Inventory: Iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, mainly Australian ore [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Prices and Spreads: Coke futures prices fluctuated weakly, and the third - round spot price cut was implemented. Coking coal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the spot auction price was mixed [7]. - Supply: Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The inventory of both increased [7]. - Demand: Pig iron production remained stable, and the demand for coke and coking coal was weak [7]. Silicon Iron Industry - Prices and Spreads: The silicon iron futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices in some regions increased [9]. - Cost and Profit: Production costs decreased, and production profits increased [9]. - Supply: Silicon iron production decreased slightly, and the production cut was mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu [9]. - Demand: Steel - making demand was stable, non - steel demand increased slightly, and export orders were fair but with low price acceptance [9]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicon iron decreased slightly [9]. Silicon Manganese Industry - Prices and Spreads: The silicon manganese futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. - Cost and Profit: Manganese ore prices were stable, and production costs and profits changed slightly [9]. - Supply: Silicon manganese production increased slightly, with new production capacity in Inner Mongolia [9]. - Demand: Steel - making demand was stable, and steel mills had a strong price - pressing attitude in procurement [9]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicon manganese remained at a high level [9].