东亚期货铝产业周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum: The domestic operating capacity is at a high level while overseas construction projects are progressing slowly; demand is growing steadily, and the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits are high, and low inventory is a key price support. High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchases, and concerns about macro - liquidity tightening lead to a high - level oscillation of the market [3]. - Alumina: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and new capacity is being gradually put into production. Demand growth has slowed down, weakening market sentiment. Current inventory is accumulating, but policies encouraging industrial mergers and reorganizations have sparked "capacity clearance" policy expectations, and the futures price has rebounded sharply. A short - term bottom for alumina may be gradually emerging [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Supply - Bauxite: The report shows the national and provincial monthly production seasonality, monthly import volume seasonality, and port inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite [20][21]. - Alumina: It presents the monthly production seasonality of Chinese alumina, the monthly production of major production areas, national and provincial weekly operating rates, monthly import volume seasonality, and import profit and loss [23][25][29]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The report includes the monthly and weekly production seasonality of Chinese electrolytic aluminum, monthly net import seasonality, and spot import profit and loss, as well as the monthly production seasonality of global electrolytic aluminum [32][33][34]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - Product Output: It details the weekly and monthly output seasonality of various aluminum products such as aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots [36][39]. - Operating Rates: The report shows the weekly and monthly operating rates seasonality of different aluminum product industries, including aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, aluminum foils, aluminum cables, and primary aluminum alloys [40][49]. - Exports: It provides the monthly export volume seasonality of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of Chinese aluminum products [51][53]. - Related Industries: It presents the data related to industries consuming aluminum, such as the cumulative year - on - year of housing start - up and completion areas and fixed - asset investment, the monthly output seasonality of automobiles and new - energy vehicles, the monthly investment completion amount of power grid projects, and the monthly new - installed capacity of photovoltaics [57][59][62]. 3.3 Inventory - Bauxite: It shows the monthly inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite in the whole country and in specific provinces like Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi [66][67]. - Alumina: It includes the factory - level inventory seasonality of alumina enterprises, the number of inventory days, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipt total seasonality [68][69]. - Aluminum: It shows the LME aluminum inventory seasonality, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity seasonality, Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory seasonality, inventory days seasonality, aluminum rod and aluminum ingot + aluminum rod spot inventory seasonality [69][70][72]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Raw Materials: It presents the prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas TTF, and European electricity prices [74][75][76]. - Production: It shows the cost of alumina and the cost - profit situation of Chinese electrolytic aluminum [74][76].