Report Summary - Report Title: Sugar Weekly Report (12.22 - 12.26) - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - This week, sugar prices rebounded after hitting a low. The main contract 05 has strong support around 5000 and has accelerated its rebound back above 5200. It is expected to consolidate briefly and oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, an expected surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of international sugar prices to around 15 cents per pound, and increased import pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices hit a low and rebounded. The main contract 05 has strong support around 5000, and international sugar prices have also rebounded above 15 cents [4]. - In the 2025/2026 season, different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance. ISO expects a surplus of 1630000 tons, DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons, Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons, and StoneX expects a surplus of 3.7 million tons [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/2026 season in China was 883000 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 91600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90000 tons, and imported 114400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 108200 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The main contract 05 of sugar has accelerated its rebound and returned above 5200. It is a repair of the previous rapid decline. It may consolidate briefly at the current level and is expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [5]. - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, an expected surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of international sugar prices to around 15 cents per pound, and increased import pressure [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 2025/2026 season. StoneX expects a surplus of 3.7 million tons, ISO expects a surplus of 1630000 tons, and Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons [31]. - From 2023/2024 to 2025/2026, China's sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and other data are presented. In 2025/2026, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, with a surplus change of 820000 tons [33]. - The import cost of raw sugar processed and完税 (50% tariff) is provided. In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5086 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.
大越期货白糖周报-20251229
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-29 04:17