大越期货棉花周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton prices accelerated their rise, with more people following the trend and entering the market, quickly driving up the market price [4]. - In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be reduced by over 10% [4][5]. - According to the ICAC November report, the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 25.4 million tons, and consumption is 25 million tons. According to the USDA November report, the production is 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.532 million tons [4]. - In November, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and 25% respectively [4]. - According to the Ministry of Agriculture in December, for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - The factors driving the current rebound include a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, an increase in downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, and a significant reduction in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton due to policy regulation. The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it is expected to continue the volatile upward trend, with possible corrections after a rapid rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, cotton prices accelerated their rise. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton in 2026 is expected to be reduced by over 10%. There are multiple factors influencing the market, including changes in export tariffs, downstream inventory replenishment, and policy - related planting area adjustments [4] 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The expected reduction of over 10% in the 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting area, downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period [5] - Bearish factors: A decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional consumption off - season [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: The total global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons compared to the previous forecast; consumption is 25.873 million tons; imports are 9.522 million tons; exports are 9.524 million tons; and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [10][11] - ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [13] - China Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4] 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content