大越期货沥青期货早报-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals are bearish. Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and demand is below the historical average due to the off - season. The cost support may weaken in the short term due to the weakening of crude oil. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2602 will fluctuate between 2967 - 3023 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the downward trend of overall demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Supply: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production was 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 3.955 percentage points. The shipment volume of national sample enterprises was 271810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.17%. The output of sample enterprises was 553000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.55%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 951000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and the pressure may continue next week [7]. - Demand: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 7.1022%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 20%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 384.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 655.87 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25.47%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - Basis: On December 26, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 741000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78%; the in - plant inventory was 597000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 470000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.07%. All types of inventory are accumulating [8]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. - Expectation: Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2602 will fluctuate between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [18]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [24]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025 [26][27]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trend: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [33]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [35]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: The report shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [39]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [42]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [44]. - Production Volume: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [47]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [52]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [57]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The report shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025 [60]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [63][64]. - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [67]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [70]. - Import and Export Analysis - Export and Import Trends: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [73]. - Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread: The report shows the historical price spread of Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025 [76]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the historical petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [79]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [82]. - Downstream Demand: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [89][91]. - Asphalt Construction Rate: The report shows the historical construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream construction (including shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [94][97][99]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt in 2024 and 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and various inventory data [104].