国投证券（香港）港股晨报-20251229

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market is experiencing narrow fluctuations with accelerated capital rotation as the year-end approaches, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.17% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.19% [2][3] - Market sentiment is cautious, with a balance between advancing and declining stocks, and a total market turnover of HKD 92.5 billion, with short selling accounting for approximately 15.83% of total trading [2][3] - Southbound capital saw a net outflow of about HKD 1.2 billion on December 24, with notable net purchases in stocks like SMIC and Agricultural Bank of China, while major sell-offs occurred in China Mobile and Tencent [2][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks emerged as the day's highlight, benefiting from sustained global AI computing demand and deepening domestic substitution logic, leading to significant gains among leading semiconductor companies [3] - The performance of large tech stocks showed divergence, lacking a unified direction, while the cyclical and energy sectors exhibited clear internal discrepancies, with power stocks performing strongly due to winter electricity demand expectations [3] - The lithium battery supply chain continued to show weakness, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw gains due to a rebound in commodity prices and supply constraints, particularly in aluminum and copper mining companies [3] Group 3: Industry Insights on Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port has entered a new phase of operation with a focus on "one line open, one line controlled, and free flow within the island," significantly reducing trade barriers with foreign countries [7][8] - The range of "zero tariff" goods has expanded from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 tax items, benefiting various enterprises and allowing for free circulation of imported goods among eligible entities [8] - The implementation of new duty-free shopping policies has led to a surge in duty-free sales, with significant increases in shopping amounts and visitor numbers since the policy's introduction [8][9] Group 4: Future Opportunities in Duty-Free Market - The second growth curve for duty-free sales is expected to come from city duty-free stores, with new policies allowing travelers to purchase without limits, enhancing consumer shopping willingness [10] - The Hainan Free Trade Port's closure is anticipated to significantly expand the types of duty-free imported goods, releasing local consumption potential [10] - The influx of inbound tourists is seen as a new growth opportunity for the duty-free market, with higher spending per capita compared to domestic tourists [11]