大越期货工业硅期货周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 8,685 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 8,880 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.25%. Supply is expected to decrease in production scheduling next week but remain at a high level, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected that the market will experience a bearish and volatile adjustment. [4][5] - For polysilicon, the 05 contract showed a downward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 60,000 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 58,955 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.74%. Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected that the market will experience a neutral and volatile adjustment next week. [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract rose from 8,685 yuan/ton to 8,880 yuan/ton, a 2.25% increase. [4] - Supply: This week's supply was 87,000 tons, a 1.13% decrease from the previous week. Sample enterprise production was 45,700 tons, a 0.02% decrease. Different regions had varying changes in production rates. [4] - Demand: This week's demand was 77,000 tons, a 4.93% decrease. Demand in various downstream sectors was generally weak. [5] - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support increased during the dry season. [5] - Inventory: Social inventory was 555,000 tons, a 0.36% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 195,600 tons, a 1.61% increase; and major port inventory was 140,000 tons, a 1.45% increase. [5] - Outlook: Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease next week, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. The market is expected to be bearish and volatile. [5] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract fell from 60,000 yuan/ton to 58,955 yuan/ton, a 1.74% decline. [7] - Supply: Last week's production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase. The predicted December production scheduling is 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month. [7] - Demand: Downstream production in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally decreasing. [7] - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,800 yuan/ton. [7] - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase, at a historically high level. [8] - Outlook: Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term, demand continues to decline, and cost support remains stable. The market is expected to be neutral and volatile. [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Shows the trends of the SI main contract basis, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc. [14][15] - Inventory: Displays the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and in total, including sample enterprises, ports, and registered warrants. [17][18][19] - Production and Capacity Utilization: Presents the production trends of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production by specification, as well as the capacity utilization and production rate trends. [21][22][23] - Cost: Analyzes the cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions such as Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang. [28][29][30] - Supply - Demand Balance: Provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance. [33][34][37] - Downstream Industries - Organic Silicon: Analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products. [39][40][41] - Aluminum Alloy: Covers the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the automotive and wheel hub sectors. [51][52][56] - Polysilicon: Analyzes the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon, as well as the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories. [59][60][62] 3.3 Technical Analysis - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected to be bearish and volatile next week. [83] - Polysilicon (PS): The main 05 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a narrow - range and volatile adjustment next week. [85]