原木期货日报-20251229
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-29 06:05

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - From December 22 - 28, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 9, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 309,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 215,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 41% [3] - With low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, some spot prices in Jiangsu region were raised last week. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but demand remains weak, and the overall upward adjustment space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures and Spot Prices - On December 26, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends: log 2601 was 766.0, up 0.5 (0.07%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.5, down 1.5 (-0.19%); log 2605 was 787.0, up 1.5 (0.19%) [2] - The prices of various spot logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on December 26 compared with the previous day, and the outer - market quotes also remained stable [2] - The import theoretical cost on December 26 was 771.91 yuan, up 0.58 yuan from the previous day, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.002 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2] Supply - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 12.1 million cubic meters (-6.01%) from October [2] - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, a decrease of 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2] Inventory - As of December 19, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.6 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3] - In different regions, the inventory in China decreased by 4.41%, in Shandong by 3.77%, and in Jiangsu by 9.85% [2][3] Demand - As of December 19, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 63,200 cubic meters, a decrease of 14,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3] - In different regions, the daily average outbound volume in China decreased by 2%, in Shandong by 3%, and in Jiangsu increased by 1% [3]