铁合金期货周报：硅铁关注成本驱动，锰硅高库存压力仍存-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction still needs to be alleviated. Although the production cut expectation has been priced in, there is insufficient expectation for demand - side improvement in the future, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term [6][10]. - For silicomanganese, it is in a state where its own supply - demand is in a slight surplus, but the overall manganese element is in a balanced state. The manganese ore provides certain support for the silicomanganese price. There is no clear signal of a trend - based rebound yet, and the price is expected to remain weak in the future. Consider short - term operations such as shorting when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia [6][123]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Ferrosilicon 1. Valuation - This week, the main ferrosilicon contract increased by 0.96%, closing at 5672 yuan/ton. There were price increases in the main production areas and some trading areas [10]. 2. Supply - The national start - up rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.5%, a decrease of 0.8% from last week. The daily average output was 14,065 tons, a decrease of 1.30% from last week. The weekly supply was 98,500 tons. Production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly [10][37]. 3. Cost and Profit - The immediate production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5492 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5911 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 5593 yuan/ton. The immediate profit in Inner Mongolia was - 222 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 343 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Lanthanum Coke - The lanthanum coke market remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of 135 lanthanum coke enterprises was 44.81%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points. The daily average output was 167,600 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons. The lanthanum coke inventory was 778,200 tons, an increase of 681,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 1,169,240,000 tons, a decrease of 676,000 tons [10]. 5. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 18,071 tons, a decrease of 0.34% from last week. In terms of non - steel demand, the price of magnesium metal was firm, and downstream replenishment increased at the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient [10]. 6. Inventory - As of December 25th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 63,610 tons, a decrease of 2.38% from last week [10]. II. Silicomanganese 1. Futures and Spot - This week, the main silicomanganese contract increased by 0.76%, closing at 5840 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and trading areas [123]. 2. Supply - The start - up rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 36.78%, an increase of 1.17% from last week. The daily average output was 27,510 tons, an increase of 620 tons. The weekly output was 192,570 tons, a 2.31% increase from last week [123]. 3. Cost and Profit - The cost in Inner Mongolia was 5780 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 6220 yuan/ton. The production profit in Inner Mongolia was - 210 yuan/ton [123]. 4. Manganese Ore Supply - The global shipping volume of South African manganese ore decreased by 20.31% week - on - week, Australian by 1.13%, and Gabonese by 49.89%, while Ghanaian increased by 100%. The arrival volume in China from different countries also had various changes [123]. 5. Manganese Ore Inventory - As of December 19th, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 4.533 million tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from last week [123]. 6. Demand - The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types was 112,653 tons, a 0.22% increase from last week. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [123]. 7. Inventory - As of June 20th, the national inventory was 387,000 tons, an increase of 2500 tons from last week [123].