铁矿石期货周报：铁水止降，钢厂补库预期支撑价格-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of global iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week but remained at a high level. The end - of - year rush by the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly but is at a high level in the same period of history. Based on the shipments, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. [2] - The daily average hot metal output remained flat compared with last week, at a historically low level. A small number of steel mills resumed production, while some were still under maintenance, mostly for annual overhauls. The profitability of steel mills has improved, but due to the off - season and a large number of overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production is expected to be limited. [2] - This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, mainly Australian ore. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level and the low off - season port clearance volume at the end of the year, iron ore will continue to accumulate, but the subsequent marginal accumulation space will be smaller than before. [2] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is unlikely to lead to a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory on the downside. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract in a short - term range, with the range referring to 760 - 810. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - Spot Price: The prices of various iron ore powders decreased compared with last week. For example, the price of Carajás fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 869 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 791 yuan/ton. The Platts Fe62% index decreased by 0.85 dollars/ton to 107.30 dollars/ton. [5] - Variety Basis: The report presents the 05 - contract basis data of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, Jinbuba fines, and Super Special fines over the years. [10][12][14] - Spread between Varieties: The report shows the spread data between different iron ore varieties such as PB fines - Jinbuba fines, PB fines - Super Special fines, and Carajás fines - PB fines over the years. [18][20][23] - Spot and Forward Transactions: The report provides the MA5 data of iron ore port spot transactions and forward transactions, as well as the import profit data of PB fines and Mac fines. [25][29][31] - Inter - monthly Spread: The report shows the spread data between different contracts such as I01 - 05, I2205 - I2209, and I05 - 09 over the years. [33][34][39] - Contract Positions: The report presents the position data of the iron ore 09 - contract and 05 - contract over the years. [35][37] 3.2 Supply - Global Shipments: This week, the global iron ore shipments decreased by 128 tons to 3464.5 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 tons to 2814.7 tons. Among them, Australian shipments decreased by 102 tons to 1950.6 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 48.8 tons to 864.1 tons. [2] - Four Major Mines' Shipments: The shipments of the four major mines to China this week are as follows: Rio Tinto 601 tons (down 8 tons from last week), BHP 523 tons (up 51 tons from last week), Vale 615 tons (down 68 tons from last week), and FMG 276 tons (down 63 tons from last week). [50] - Freight Rates: The freight rates from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao decreased compared with last week. For example, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 8.9 dollars/ton. [58] - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports this week was 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons compared with last week. The arrival volume at 47 ports was 2790 tons, a decrease of 138 tons compared with last week. [2][65] - Import Volume: From January to November 2025, the cumulative national iron ore import volume was 114057 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1680 tons and a year - on - year increase rate of 1%. The import volume of Australian and Brazilian ore increased, while the import volume of non - mainstream ore decreased. [77] - Domestic Iron Concentrate Production: The iron concentrate production of 186 and 126 mining enterprises decreased compared with last week. For example, the iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises decreased by 1.4 tons to 43.4 tons. [87] 3.3 Demand - Steel Mill Indicators: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 226.58 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared with last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points. The blast furnace start - up rate was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points. [2][101] - Port Clearance and Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports and the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills are presented in the report. [110][111] - Sintering Proportion: The sintering ore charging ratio of 114 steel enterprises was 73.82%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points compared with last week. The charging ratios of lump ore and pellet ore decreased. [118] - Global Steel Production: The report shows the production data of global, Indian, Russian, American, Turkish, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean crude steel and the production data of global, Chinese, Indian, EU27, Japanese, and Russian pig iron over the years. [119][124][128] 3.4 Inventory - Port Inventory: As of December 25, the inventory at 45 ports was 15858.66 tons, an increase of 346.03 tons compared with last week. The report also shows the inventory data of 45 ports + 247 steel mills + berthing vessels, 45 - port inventory by cargo rights, 45 - port berthing days, and 47 - port inventory. [2][145][148] - Steel Mill Inventory: The imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 136.24 tons to 8860.19 tons. The report also shows the inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio data of 247 steel mills. [2][155] - 15 - Port Inventory by Variety: The report presents the inventory data of 15 ports by variety. [156]