瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251229

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will undergo a moderately strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level at 23000 yuan/ton and the upper resistance at 23600 yuan/ton. Upstream, zinc ore imports are declining, domestic refinery raw material winter reserves have started, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and a contraction in refinery profits, with expected production decline. The export window may close again due to the rebound of the Shanghai-London ratio. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real - estate sector being a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, while the automobile sector has some policy - supported highlights. The domestic inventory continues to decline, while LME zinc inventory has increased significantly [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 23255 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3086.5 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc is 197429 lots, down 2988 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 1795 lots, up 2441 lots. - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 72963 tons, down 3054 tons; LME inventory is 106875 tons, up 7900 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23440 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23490 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 185 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 28.26 dollars/ton, up 0.88 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20070 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. c. Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35700 tons, a decrease of 14700 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 20300 tons, a decrease of 27600 tons. - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc ore production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31000 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 665000 tons, up 40000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 340900 tons, down 164500 tons [3]. d. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 18836.76 tons, down 3840.75 tons; refined zinc exports are 8518.67 tons, up 6040.84 tons. - Social zinc inventory is 111400 tons, down 7800 tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140000 tons. - The monthly new housing construction area is 534567000 square meters, up 43953100 square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 348610000 square meters, up 37321200 square meters. - The monthly automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3]. f. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 17.68%, up 0.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 17.69%, up 0.69%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.28%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.69%, down 0.07% [3]. g. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones. - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months. The profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing has accelerated, mainly due to the decline in industrial production and profit margins [3].