瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251229

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high in the short - term considering potential enterprise malfunctions. Although it's the off - season for agricultural demand, there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui, while commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The short - term enterprise device operating rate may fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection situations. Affected by market sentiment, urea factory orders are progressing, and factory shipments are improving. Domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to decline. After the end of the environmental protection warning, urea production is expected to rebound, and inventories may rise. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1760 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1735 yuan/ton, with no change; the 5 - 9 spread is 34 yuan/ton, with no change. The main contract's open interest is 194,803 lots, an increase of 1,149 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 25,071 lots, a decrease of 1,392 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 10,750 lots, with no change [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton, in Henan is 1710 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu and Anhui are 1720 yuan/ton, all with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 350 US dollars/ton, and FOB China Main Port is 390 US dollars/ton, both with no change [3]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons (28.26%); enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons (9.39%). The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92%; the daily urea output is 190,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. Urea export volume is 60 million tons, a decrease of 60 million tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, an increase of 129,060 tons [3]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.07%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 billion tons, an increase of 753.8 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [3]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons (9.39%). As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons (28.26%), and exports were being shipped to ports steadily. As of December 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3334 billion tons, a decrease of 325 million tons (2.38%) from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a decrease of 1.92% from the previous period. There were new device overhauls, and the output continued to decline. There were no planned device shutdowns this week, and 3 - 5 shutdown devices were expected to resume production [3]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [3].