苹果产业日报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - In the apple industry, the inventory Fuji transactions in Shandong and Shaanxi production areas have changed little. Traders continue to pick up the goods by themselves, and the trading volume of fruit farmers' goods is small. The prices of good - quality goods are stable, while those of average and poor - quality goods show a weakening trend. In Gansu production area, the inventory apple transactions are stable. The transactions in some high - cost - performance areas of inventory Fuji have ended, and the transactions are gradually shifting to high - price areas and Huaniu apples, with basically stable prices. The number of apple - seeking merchants in production areas has increased slightly, but the transactions of fruit farmers' goods are limited, and the in - warehouse packaging and shipping have increased. As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main production areas of the country is 744.04 tons, a decrease of 8.94 tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed is lower than the same period last year. The inventory ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi production areas has decreased, but the shipping speed in Shandong is not fast, mainly through foreign trade channels, and the overall shipping volume has increased slightly. The transactions in Shaanxi are light, and the prices of some fruit farmers' general goods in Luochuan have loosened. In the sales area, the arrival of goods has increased. Driven by festivals such as the Winter Solstice and Christmas, the sales have improved slightly, but there is still pressure to digest. Fruits such as cherries and citrus are popular in the market, and the short - term price will mainly fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9163 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3129 hands, a decrease of 1719 hands. The main contract position is 138,844 hands, a decrease of 3342 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial products) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade products) is 4 yuan/jin, all with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in the country is 5128.51 tons, an increase of 168.34 tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.1 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The total inventory of national apple cold storage is 744.04 tons, a decrease of 8.94 tons. The inventory ratio in Shandong is 0.57, and that in Shaanxi is 0.53. The monthly export volume of apples is 120,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [2]. 3.4 产业情况 - The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 30.5 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples has decreased by 216,418 US dollars. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants per week is 0 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 6.83 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.23 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 5.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg. The average daily arrival of vehicles in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 18.6 vehicles, an increase of 1.4 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 35.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 24.4 vehicles, an increase of 8.2 vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on apples is 24.47%, a decrease of 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.46%, a decrease of 0.32% [2].