铂钯金期货日报-20251229

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The parabolic rise in the prices of platinum and palladium recently may intensify the risk of a high - level decline. Short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] - In the short term, the platinum and palladium market may enter a high - level volatile consolidation phase, but the previous squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot situation may support the price for a pulse - like rebound [2] - In the long term, the price of platinum may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continued supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - to - long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. The demand for palladium is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by the interest rate cut expectation may give some support to the price [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) decreased by 70.45 to 634.35, and the closing price of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) decreased by 54.90 to 494.10 [2] - The main contract position of platinum (daily, lots) decreased by 277 to 10387, and that of palladium (daily, lots) increased by 90 to 3179 [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 25 to 637.15, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium increased by 60 to 488 [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 45.45 to 2.80, and the basis of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 114.90 to - 6.10 [2] - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) decreased by 243 to 9966, and those of palladium (weekly, contracts) decreased by 342 [2] 3.3. Supply and Demand Situation - The total supply of platinum (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 0.80 in 2025, and the total supply of palladium (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 5 to 220.40 in 2025 [2] - The total demand for platinum (annual, tons) is expected to increase by 25.60 in 2025, and the total demand for palladium (annual, tons) is expected to decrease by 27 to 261.60 in 2025 [2] 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.12 to 98.03, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained unchanged at 1.91% [2] - The VIX volatility index increased by 0.13 to 13.60 [2] 3.5. Industry News - The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 18.8%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 81.2%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 46.9%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.5% [2] - Affected by the long - position profit - taking, the main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange tumbled in the afternoon and hit the daily limit [2] 3.6. Key Points to Follow - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, the year - on - year US FHFA housing price index; on January 1, 2026, at 21:45, the US Markit manufacturing PMI [2]