瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20251229

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic data in November put pressure on the upside of A-shares. However, the National Fiscal Work Conference held from December 27 - 28 had a positive impact on market sentiment, creating a warm macro - environment for the market, and A - shares have strong bottom support. The market's expectation of the dovish stance of the new Fed Chairman led to a weaker US dollar, and the continuous strengthening of the RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes - Contract Prices: IF (2603) is at 4610.2 (-25.8), IH (2603) at 3038.0 (-14.6), IC (2603) at 7336.6 (-49.6), and IM (2603) at 7439.0 (-38.4). The prices of their respective secondary contracts also decreased [2]. - Contract Spreads: IF - IH spread is 1594.8 (-14.2), IC - IF spread is 2790.8 (-8.6), etc. Some spreads increased while others decreased [2]. - Quarter - to - Month Spreads: IF quarter - to - month spreads are -20.6 (-2.0) for the current quarter and -63.4 (+2.6) for the next quarter. Similar data is provided for other contracts, with various changes [2]. - Net Positions of Top 20 Holders: IF is -28,924.00 (-709.0), IH is -14,420.00 (-457.0), IC is -29,750.00 (-1336.0), and IM is -38,985.00 (-1757.0) [2]. Spot Prices - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 is at 4639.37 (-17.9), the Shanghai 50 is at 3034.6 (-10.8), the CSI 500 is at 7430.6 (-28.2), and the CSI 1000 is at 7594.2 (-11.4). The basis of their corresponding futures contracts also changed [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 21,576.86 billion yuan (-234.17 billion yuan), margin trading balance is 25,433.30 billion yuan (-21.00 billion yuan), and north - bound trading volume is 1671.78 billion yuan (-132.60 billion yuan). Other indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks, option prices, and volatilities also showed different changes [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market strength index is 4.10 (-0.80), the technical index is 3.70 (+0.30), and the capital index is 4.50 (-1.90) [2]. Industry News - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%, but in November, the profit decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. The National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented in 2026, with measures such as expanding fiscal expenditure and optimizing government bonds [2]. Market Performance - A - share major indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%. Most industry sectors declined, and overseas, Trump may announce a new Fed Chairman this week [2].