天然橡胶产业日报-20251229

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory build - up rate narrowing month - on - month. There is an expectation of a decrease in overseas vessel arrivals, but the rubber price has risen more than expected. Downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode for replenishment, with weak purchasing sentiment, leading to continued inventory accumulation. - In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises adjusted production flexibly last week. Some enterprises controlled production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased month - on - month, entering the seasonal off - season. The overall shipment pace of enterprises was slow, finished product inventory rose, and under production and sales pressure, some enterprises had production suspension or limitation. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. - The Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread was 10 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread was 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was - 25 yuan/ton. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 6,552 to 179,391 lots, and the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 7,922 to 3,000 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 47,737 lots, a decrease of 149 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were 1,392 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increased by 2,660 to 96,590 tons, and the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber increased by 101 to 58,061 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,880 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,875 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets was 58.49 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.07 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of rubber sheets was 55.49 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.1 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of glue was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of cup rubber was 54.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 13.6 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 42,700 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, an increase of 45,800 tons. - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.95%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points, and the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.05%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 1.87 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires was 46.86 days, an increase of 0.38 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 590,000 pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5,831,000 pieces, an increase of 663,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 13.68%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.94%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.94%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points [2]. Industry News - According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared to October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared to 68,500 in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 524,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,600 tons, an increase of 1.87%. The bonded area inventory was 81,400 tons, an increase of 2.25%; the general trade inventory was 443,400 tons, an increase of 1.80%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 0.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.08 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.38 percentage points. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2].