野村-全球进入新瓦特时代

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the energy sector, particularly in the context of increasing electricity demand and the transition to renewable energy sources [1][3][20]. Core Insights - The global electricity demand is entering a super cycle driven by AI, industrialization, and electrification, with significant growth expected in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East [3][4][5]. - The U.S. electricity consumption is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7%-4% from 2025 to 2030, primarily due to the return of manufacturing and the expansion of data centers [1][3]. - In Europe, electricity demand is expected to increase by 2.4% over the next five years, driven by industrialization and data center development [5]. - The Middle East has seen a threefold increase in electricity demand over the past 20 years, with further growth anticipated due to urbanization and industrial investments [6][7]. - China is one of the fastest-growing countries in terms of electricity demand, with a projected consumption of approximately 910 billion kWh in 2024, driven by industrial and export activities [8][9]. Summary by Sections U.S. Electricity Demand - U.S. peak load is expected to increase by 166 GW from 2026 to 2030, with data centers contributing 90 GW [4]. - Challenges in data center capacity growth include increased access difficulties and local opposition [11]. - Texas faces a potential electricity price increase due to rapid demand growth and weak grid support [13][14]. European Electricity Demand - European electricity demand is lagging behind the U.S. by 2-3 years, with a projected increase driven by industrialization and data centers [5]. - By 2030, data centers are expected to contribute 35 GW to electricity demand in Europe [5]. Middle East Electricity Demand - The Middle East's electricity demand is driven by urbanization and cooling needs, with a significant reliance on natural gas [6][7]. - Future growth in the region is expected to be fueled by infrastructure development and industrialization [7]. China Electricity Demand - China's electricity demand is expected to maintain steady growth, with industrial consumption accounting for 64% of total usage [8][9]. - The focus on enhancing the energy structure and grid investment is anticipated to support future demand [9]. Energy Storage Market - The U.S. energy storage market is experiencing strong demand, with optimistic growth projections for major companies like Tesla [19][20]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see a price increase due to tight supply and strong demand from the energy storage sector [21]. Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and others in the energy sector are viewed as having strong growth potential despite high valuations [29].