野村-结构分化进入下半场

Investment Rating - The report maintains a structural investment focus, emphasizing opportunities in high-value manufacturing, aesthetic exports, and passive fund inflows, particularly in the context of improving liquidity in the market [1][6][24]. Core Insights - The A-share market is expected to continue its structural differentiation into 2026, driven by industry prosperity, corporate profitability, and internal and external demand dynamics [1][3][9]. - The profitability forecast for the CSI 300 index has been raised to 7.2% for 2026 and 8.4% for 2027, indicating that market growth will increasingly rely on fundamental factors rather than valuation expansion [4][22]. - The TMT sector has maintained high trading activity, becoming a significant market driver, with passive funds contributing to increased liquidity [8][26]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Trends - The A-share market is projected to be driven by breakthroughs in AI technology and geopolitical developments, with a focus on a "barbell strategy" that balances growth and dividend assets [2][3]. - Structural differentiation is anticipated to manifest in three areas: industry prosperity, corporate profitability, and internal/external demand dynamics [3][9]. Profitability Forecast - The profitability of the CSI 300 index has been adjusted upward, with forecasts of 7.2% and 8.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a reliance on fundamental growth rather than valuation expansion [4][22]. Capital Flow Characteristics - Key capital flow characteristics include the export of high-value manufacturing goods, aesthetic exports, and the passive nature of incremental capital, particularly following the implementation of the OCI policy [6][24]. - The total scale of OCI accounts for major insurance companies increased by nearly 41 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 compared to the end of 2024, highlighting the growing appeal of dividend-centric state-owned enterprises [6]. Sectoral Performance - The technology sector's net profit share has been increasing, while the financial and real estate sectors have seen declines in revenue and profit shares [10][11][12]. - Companies with over 20% of revenue from overseas have shown significant growth in both revenue and net profit, reflecting the impact of external demand on A-share performance [14][15]. Future Market Expectations - The market is expected to continue exhibiting fundamental differentiation, influenced by technological innovation, corporate leadership disparities, and enhanced external demand [16][20]. - The baseline scenario includes a neutral to accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve and ongoing structural adjustments in domestic policy [17]. Recommended Investment Directions - Three key areas for investment are identified: high-end manufacturing, globalization of Chinese consumer products, and the passive inflow of incremental capital [24][25]. - High-end manufacturing is expected to leverage global R&D and capital advantages, while Chinese consumer products are anticipated to gain traction in overseas markets through effective marketing strategies [25].