有色套利早报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 30, 2025, offering insights for potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spot price is 100950 domestically and 12584 on LME with a ratio of 7.80; March price is 98940 domestically and 12553 on LME with a ratio of 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.96 with a loss of 1855.70 [1] - Zinc: Spot price is 23380 domestically and 3086 on LME with a ratio of 7.58; March price is 23285 domestically and 3116 on LME with a ratio of 5.65. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.38 with a loss of 2484.97 [1] - Aluminum: Spot price is 22490 domestically and 2934 on LME with a ratio of 7.66; March price is 22625 domestically and 2972 on LME with a ratio of 7.66. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.34 with a loss of 1994.64 [1] - Nickel: Spot price is 130850 domestically and 15520 on LME with a ratio of 8.43. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.05 with a profit of 1196.97 [1] - Lead: Spot price is 17475 domestically and 1967 on LME with a ratio of 8.83; March price is 17465 domestically and 2011 on LME with a ratio of 11.63. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.62 with a profit of 421.73 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 260, 340, 400, 390; theoretical differences are 595, 1088, 1590, 2092 [4] - Zinc: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 55, 85, 130, 130; theoretical differences are 219, 344, 469, 594 [4] - Aluminum: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 235, 290, 325, 340; theoretical differences are 223, 346, 470, 594 [4] - Lead: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are - 50, - 75, - 95, - 125; theoretical differences are 213, 321, 430, 539 [4] - Nickel: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are - 730, - 410, - 140, 200 [4] - Tin: 5 - 1 difference is 1320 with a theoretical difference of 6865 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are - 2120 and - 1860; theoretical differences are 26 and 620 [4] - Zinc: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are - 180 and - 125; theoretical differences are 119 and 288 [5] - Lead: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are 65 and 15; theoretical differences are 144 and 260 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 4.25, 4.37, 5.67, 0.97, 1.30, 0.75 in Shanghai and 3.96, 4.14, 6.09, 0.96, 1.47, 0.65 in London [8]