沪锌期货早报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the zinc market shows a mix of positive and negative factors, with the short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2602 expected to be a volatile decline. The market has supply shortages, positive factors in basis, inventory reduction, and favorable technical indicators, but the main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions [2][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1193,500 tons, consumption was 1,229,200 tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc plate production was 10,363,200 tons, consumption was 10,736,900 tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1,163,300 tons, and from January to September, it was 9,964,700 tons [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price was 23,540, with a basis of +285, indicating a positive situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On December 29, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 325 tons to 106,550 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,091 tons to 40,984 tons [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing upward. The short - term view is that the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ rose, running at the strength demarcation point; the trend indicator declined, with the bullish power rising, the bearish power falling, and the advantage of the bullish power expanding [2][18]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main positions were net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a negative situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on December 29 - The trading volume of zinc futures on December 29 was 385,770 lots, with a trading value of 4,484,419,620 yuan. The open interest was 197,429 lots, a decrease of 2,988 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on December 29 - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 23,490 - 23,590 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 260 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 23,290 - 23,390 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 230 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 23,340 - 23,440 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 235 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 225 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (December 18 - December 29, 2025) - The total inventory on December 29 was 105,600 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons compared to December 22 and a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to December 25 [5]. 3.9 Zinc Warrant Report on December 29 - The total zinc warrants on December 29 were 40,984 tons, a decrease of 1,091 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on December 29 - The total LME zinc inventory was 106,650 tons, a decrease of 325 tons compared to the previous day [8]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on December 29 - The price of 50% grade zinc concentrate in most regions increased by 310 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions ranging from 19,770 - 20,370 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on December 29 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from various manufacturers increased by 240 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 23,150 - 24,150 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in November 2025 - The actual production in November 2025 was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%, a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, and a decrease of 4.93% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 69.45%, and the planned production in December was 477,500 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on December 29 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton in most regions, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 40 - 60 dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on December 29 - The total trading volume of members was 393,551 lots, an increase of 159,115 lots. The total long positions were 63,133 lots, a decrease of 53 lots, and the total short positions were 67,593 lots, a decrease of 2,164 lots [17].