大越期货尿素早报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, with short - term export demand falling. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate are stable, comprehensive inventory has declined, and de - stocking is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demand is based on needs. The opening rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable, and reserve demand has declined. The short - term export demand has fallen, and the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 35, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.1%, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons (-7.2), showing a neutral situation [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea will fluctuate. Industrial demand is based on needs, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand is falling, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Positive factor is inventory de - stocking; negative factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1700 (-10), Shandong spot is 1710 (-20), Henan spot is 1700 (0), and FOB China is 2732 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 05 contract is 1735 (0), UR01 is 1667 (0), UR05 is 1735 (0), and UR09 is 1701 (0). The basis is - 35 (-10) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 10750 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 106.9 million tons, and UR port inventory is 17.7 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show certain trends of change. For example, in 2019, the production capacity growth rate was 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9].