集运早报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2602 contract, future performance depends on spot trends. It's hard to predict the peak height and timing of January freight rates and subsequent price - drop rhythms, so entry at the current level is not recommended [3]. - The EC2604 contract has a moderately high valuation, but there is short - term upward risk. The strategy is mainly to go short on rallies [3]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Given the long - term logic of resumption of shipping and the off - season, the strategy for the EC2610 contract is to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Content Futures Market - Contract Prices and Changes: EC2512 closed at 1604.8 with a - 0.51% change; EC2602 at 1822.9 (- 0.09%); EC2604 at 1169.9 (+ 1.31%); EC2606 at 1374.0 (+ 4.39%); EC2608 at 1497.7 (+ 0.78%); EC2610 at 1054.7 (+ 0.51%) [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: For example, EC2512 - 2504 spread was 434.9, with a day - on - day change of - 23.3 and a week - on - week change of - 66.4 [2]. Spot Market - Indices and Changes: The SCFIS (European Line) index on 2025/12/29 was 1742.64, up 9.66% from the previous period; the SCH (European Line) spot price on 2025/12/26 was 1690 dollars/TEU, up 10.24%; the CCFI was 1519.06, up 3.06%; the NCFI was 1144.37, up 7.22% [2]. - European Line Spot Quotes: In Week 1, the central price was 1950 dollars, equivalent to about 1950 points on the futures market. In Week 2, MSK kept the price at 2500 dollars, with the price at Hamburg Port rising to 2600 dollars [4]. Geopolitical News - On 12/30, Trump said he and Netanyahu reached an agreement on most matters, and they discussed Hamas disarmament and the second - phase plan for Gaza [4]. - On 12/29, Hamas claimed that Israel did not fulfill the cease - fire agreement and called on the US to pressure Israel [5].