广发早知道：汇总版-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market situation is complex, with different sectors showing various trends. Some sectors are affected by strong macro - expectations and weak fundamental realities, such as aluminum. Others are influenced by supply - demand imbalances, policy changes, and external events [2][25]. - In general, many sectors are in a state of volatility, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors in each sector, such as inventory changes, downstream consumption, and policy adjustments [2][70][84]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - Aluminum: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract operating between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [2]. - Methanol: Due to device disruptions, the price has strengthened. The port may face inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. Pay attention to inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [3]. - Iron Ore: Supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation. Pay attention to iron water trends, steel mill restocking rhythms, and negotiation situations [3][55]. - Pig: The demand supports the market, and the macro and the futures market resonate. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures market is expected to oscillate strongly [4][72]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: Short - term negative factors are exhausted. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread combinations and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: In the short term, it is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. After the New Year, pay attention to the capital situation. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The price dropped sharply after a high - level rise. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, the price has an upward space. Long positions can be arranged after the callback [13][14]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is in a consolidation stage, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to present an oscillatory pattern in the short term [16]. 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term price may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [20]. - Alumina: The policy is difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [22]. - Aluminum: It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [25]. - Aluminum Alloy: It is expected to continue high - level range oscillations. An arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and short AL03 can be considered [28]. - Zinc: The short - term price may oscillate. It is recommended to hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [31]. - Tin: It is expected to be in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. - Nickel: It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Pay attention to the possibility of a callback [39]. - Stainless Steel: It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. Pay attention to nickel ore news and steel mill production reduction implementation [42]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations before the New Year. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - Polysilicon: It is in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production reduction and price adjustment acceptance [49]. - Industrial Silicon: It is in low - level oscillations. Pay attention to the implementation of production reduction [51]. 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - Steel: It continues to reduce production and inventory. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [53]. - Iron Ore: It is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to cautiously go long for short - term operations [55]. - Coking Coal: It is recommended to short at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [59]. - Coke: It is recommended to short the 2605 contract at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [61]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5500 - 5700. Pay attention to coal price changes [64]. - Silicon Manganese: It is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [67]. 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - Meal: The US soybeans maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot is loose. It is recommended to operate cautiously [70]. - Pig: The demand supports the market. The short - term price is expected to be strong [72]. - Corn: The short - term price may rise due to the resonance of futures and cash, but the sustainability of the rise is limited. Pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy releases [75]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is in a low - level oscillating platform. The domestic market should pay attention to the actual demand after the spot price rises. It is recommended to maintain a rebound - shorting idea [76]. - Cotton: The short - term cotton price may oscillate steadily and strongly [78]. - Egg: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [81]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil may oscillate weakly; soybean oil may oscillate in a narrow range; rapeseed oil may test the pressure level of 9200 yuan [84][85]. - Jujube: The market sentiment is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [86]. - Apple: The short - term market is in a game between the scarcity of delivery fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. Pay attention to the actual inventory reduction progress [88]. 3.3.4 Energy Chemicals - PX: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [90]. - PTA: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [92]. - Short - fiber: It follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to short when the processing fee is high [93]. - Bottle Chips: The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and short the processing fee at high prices [96]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price increase has resistance. It is recommended to conduct a reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high prices [97]. - Pure Benzene: It is in low - level oscillations. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [98]. - Styrene: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short at 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [100]. - LLDPE: It is recommended to go long the 2605 contract in the short term [101]. - PP: It is recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [102]. - Methanol: Pay attention to the reduction of MTO05 [103]. - Caustic Soda: The price may continue to decline. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern [104]. - PVC: It is expected to rebound and then weaken. The supply - demand is in an excess pattern [106]. - Soda Ash: It is recommended to short on rebounds [108]. - Glass: It is recommended to wait and see [109]. - Natural Rubber: It is recommended to hold short positions at 15700 [113]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is in wide - range oscillations. It is expected to oscillate between 11200 - 12000 in the short term [115].